Climate Change: a clear and present future

mop and bucket

As the long-predicted effects of greenhouse gas pollution proliferate, moves are afoot to clean it up.

The modern world is rudely awakening to a situation climate scientists have been forecasting for over four decades. In 1973, British meteorologist John Sawyer predicted atmospheric warming of 0.6C by the year 2000. He wasn’t far off. Observed increases were actually between 0.51C and 0.56°C. In 1981, American researchers led by James Hansen predicted a warming of about 0.65°C by 2017. Warming for that year was actually higher at nearly 0.8°C. In 1989, a special issue of Scientific American ran an article by Stephen H. Schneider entitled The Changing Climate with the subtitle: “Global warming should be unmistakable within a decade or two. Prompt emissions cuts could slow the buildup of heat trapping gases and limit this risky planetwide experiment”.

Thirty years later, the signs are indeed unmistakable: increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, drought and wild fire; regular bouts of extreme weather; glaciers and polar ice caps melting; coastal flooding; rural and suburban homes consumed by forest fires; people dying of heat stroke.

Climate change is bearing down on us because there has been little in the way of the “prompt emissions cuts” recommended by Schneider’s 1989 article. Instead, there has been a massive propagation of our modern, energy-intensive lifestyle turbocharged by a 50 percent increase in world population. Collectively, we are using more land, making more stuff, and burning more coal, oil and gas to fuel the ever-expanding economic machinery. The result is a torrent of anthropogenic greenhouse gases – halocarbons, nitrous oxide, methane, and especially carbon dioxide – pouring into the atmosphere at the rate of over 30 billion tons every year.

If these greenhouse gases were coming from a single source, and were visible (they are insidiously invisible), it would likely be a sight terrible enough to mobilize global action to stop it. But there is no single, awe-inspiring gas fountain to hold the attention of the news media and set the population abuzz. Greenhouse gas pollution is diffuse; it hides in plain sight. Most of it comes from commonplace energy conversion devices around the world that burn fossil fuels: over a billion internal combustion engines in automobiles; tens of thousands of coal, gas and oil-fired steam turbines in electricity generation plants; tens of thousands of turbines and internal combustions engines in aircraft, ships and locomotives; uncounted small internal combustion engines in lawn mowers, chainsaws and hand held tools. We are surrounded by greenhouse gas pollution devices. You likely own one. I do.

Meanwhile, tens of thousands of square kilometers of forests are slashed and burned every year to make room for industrial scale cultivation, urban development and resource extraction. Hundreds of millions of cattle and sheep are happily belching methane as they graze. Thousands of landfills worldwide leak methane.

To make matters worse, recent observations and events underline the feedback effects produced by a warming atmosphere. A recent German study indicates that melting permafrost could allow the release of up to 1 billion tons of methane and 37 billion tons of carbon dioxide by the year 2100. Fires raging in northern boreal forests are producing greenhouse gases at the rate of some 170 tons per hectare. In 2017, 1.2 million hectares of forest burned in British Columbia alone, producing upwards of 200 megatons of greenhouse gas, roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of ten large coal-fired electricity plants.

Most people now understand that this unchecked stream of greenhouse gas pollution is warming the atmosphere. But recent climate research tells us that the warming trend is about to overtake us, if it hasn’t already. In a 2016 paper entitled Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous, James Hansen and 18 co-authors predict a catastrophic sea level rise of several meters beginning as early as 2066. The scientific team concluded that “the message our climate science delivers to society, policy makers, and the public alike is this: we have a global emergency. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions should be reduced as rapidly as practical.”

However, with the nasty effects of climate change now manifest, the necessity to do more than just “reduce” emissions is obvious. The world economy is clearly not phasing out the old fossil fuel paradigm fast enough. So while we slowly accelerate the phase-in of zero carbon electricity generation plants, battery powered vehicles, and energy efficient buildings in an economy constrained by competitive, cost-conscious interests, we will have no choice but to remove large amounts of CO2 – the major greenhouse gas pollutant – directly from the atmosphere.

Now, the good news: technologies intended to achieve this are in the works.

In Iceland, Reykjavik Energy is developing a carbon sequestration project in partnership with several international research institutions. Called Carbfix, the project captures CO2 from a geothermal electricity generation plant and injects it into basalt rock formations a kilometre or more underground. Once there, it mineralizes into a stable compound within a couple of years. Basalt rock composes about 10% of the planet’s continental surface area and underlies most of the ocean floor. Globally, the mineral uptake of these formations is estimated at between 100 and 250 trillion tons, in theory enough to easily absorb all the excess CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere. So it looks like there’s a way to store the stuff in permanent, solid form.

Along a similar mineralization pathway, a team of researchers based at Trent University, in Ontario, recently devised an experimental process to rapidly and inexpensively capture CO2 by combining it with magnesium to form the mineral magnesite (magnesium carbonate). In nature, magnesite takes hundreds of thousands of years to form. In the lab, it takes 72 days at room temperature, suggesting an uncomplicated route to industrial scale carbon capture. One ton of magnesium carbonate sequesters about a half ton of CO2.

Meanwhile, in Squamish, British Columbia, a Canadian company, Carbon Engineering, is running a pilot project to capture CO2 directly from the air using a chemical solution. The project has been testing a full-scale direct air capture (DAC) unit since 2015, and has shown that CO2 can be removed from the atmosphere for less than $100US per ton. In December 2017, it began combining captured CO2 with electrolysis-derived hydrogen to produce roughly a barrel of carbon neutral fuel per day. Full scale capture plants would each remove up to one million tons of CO2 from the atmosphere annually, and be located according to their purpose. Plants intended for fuel production could be built anywhere; those intended for CO2 sequestration would be built near suitable geological formations. The pilot project in Squamish is funded by private investors including Bill Gates, and by government agencies including Sustainable Development Technologies Canada and the US Department of Energy.

A similar direct air capture facility has been built on a modest commercial scale near Zurich by Climeworks, a Swiss firm. The plant has 18 capture turbines and currently harvests CO2 at a cost of about 600 swiss francs per ton. The venture is heavily subsidized making it possible to sell the CO2 at competitive rates to a nearby greenhouse where it enhances plant growth by 20 percent. Local fizzy drink and bakery companies are interested. The owners expect capture costs to come down as the technology scales up.

In another approach, CO2 can be removed from the atmosphere by breaking it down into its two basic elements. At George Washington University in Ashburn, Virginia, Stuart Licht has been leading a team of researchers on a project called C2CNT, intent on capturing CO2 on a large scale using solar energy. The process uses sunlight to power a molten carbonate electrolyzer that breaks CO2 down into nothing but oxygen and solid carbon nanotubes. Carbon nanotubes are a hi-tech industrial material used to make, among other things, lightweight aircraft bodies and tennis rackets. They are currently produced in an elaborate process and worth up to $300 per gram. The small lab version of C2CNT’s device makes nanofibres directly and relatively inexpensively. Commercial scale versions would be self-powered and constructed en masse in any sunny region on the planet. According to the team’s calculations, the electrolytic process is so efficient that full deployment worldwide could reduce atmospheric CO2 to preindustrial levels in 10 years. Recently, organizers of the NRG COSIA Carbon XPrize awarded Dr. Licht and his team funding to build a full-scale demonstration unit to capture CO2 from industrial flue gas. Direct air capture – and sequestration – would of course be its most useful application.

Not only useful but imperative. A recent report from the Joint Research Centre of the European Union concluded that even with very strong international efforts to curb greenhouse gas pollution, the build-up of atmospheric CO2 will go considerably beyond the limits needed to meet the agreements made in Paris. The report’s authors said that carbon dioxide removal is no longer a choice, but a necessity for limiting warming to 1.5°C.

It would seem that the stage is being set for a global CO2 pollution cleanup effort.

Two billion points of carbon dioxide pollution

lawn mowers

Fossil fuel providers are merely enabling our cozy, polluting ways

Fossil fuel providers have been taking the brunt of public anxiety and frustration over climate change. However, the corporate entities that mine, process and deliver coal, oil and natural gas are one step removed from fossil fuel combustion and the resulting carbon dioxide pollution, the primary driver of climate change. Carbon dioxide pollution does not occur at the behest of Big Oil & Gas, or Big Coal. It occurs when humans operate some sort of fossil fuel-powered mechanical device.

Worldwide, an estimated two billion internal combustion engines propel a global inventory of automobiles, locomotives, ships, aircraft, stationary power generators, lawnmowers and hand-held tools. Tens of thousands of industrial boilers drive steam turbines that turn electric generators in electricity plants, and hundreds of blast furnaces and kilns produce steel and cement. Millions of oil furnaces heat homes. Millions of gas stoves cook food. For the carbon dioxide pollution to stop, humans have to stop building and using these carbon dioxide pollution devices and deploy substitutes.

The ways and means to do this are known, and are making their way into public policy in some progressive societies. The state of California is heading for 100 percent greenhouse-gas-free energy by 2045. The city of Vancouver, in the province of British Columbia aspires to 100 percent renewable energy by 2050. Politicians in California and British Columbia can entertain these ambitions because both jurisdictions have enormous renewable energy resources available to power their respective electric grids. California, the world’s wealthiest sub-national economy with a GDP roughly the size of India, has has a wealth of solar, wind and geothermal energy. British Columbia’s grid is already 95 percent powered by hydro electricity. On the other end of the spectrum is Poland, with relatively modest renewable capacity. The country’s new leadership is not making any moves to wean its electric grid off of the abundant coal supplies in that country. Poland would have to embrace nuclear energy, or become part of a low carbon European electric grid.

Technological solutions are available to correct what is essentially a technological problem. The main difficulty is whether these solutions can be implemented fast enough within the framework of the prevailing economic order. At present, zero carbon energy targets are only achievable when adequate zero carbon primary energy resources are available and affordable in a given jurisdiction.

But stopping carbon dioxide pollution is a technical problem that is well beyond the skill set of politicians alone.

To the extent that the collective consciousness finds expression in enterprise, politics, activism and personal choice – that consciousness needs to make it clear to the automotive, electricity, industrial and building construction sectors that carbon dioxide pollution must be stopped as quickly as possible. Use electric propulsion in the automotive sector. Phase in wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, tidal and fourth generation nuclear energy in the electricity sector – whatever works best and is most economical in a given region. The international community will have to lend a hand to countries that can’t afford energy transition.

runner and cyclist vancouver seawallWhere possible, individuals and organizations that own carbon dioxide pollution devices, can simply stop using them. Walk, or take a bus, if that works. Enterprises that build carbon dioxide polluting devices for any purpose can build substitutes. This is happening. The collective consciousness needs to focus on these solutions and push hard for accelerated diffusion and adoption. Fossil fuel providers are a distraction, a scapegoat even. Tell the builders and users of carbon dioxide pollution devices (that includes those who might be reading this) to cease and desist. Loud and clear. As soon as practical.

Climate Change – focused analysis, focused action

binoculars and turbines

Carbon dioxide is invisible, odorless and non-toxic. It is an essential component of the atmosphere – a greenhouse gas that keeps the surface of the planet much warmer than it would otherwise be. As such, it is in no way a threat to human well-being. Yet now, carbon dioxide is effectively a dangerous pollutant because the fossil fuel-based energy conversion devices (ECDs) that power the world economy burn fossilized hydrocarbons, and in the process discharge some 30 billion tonnes of this otherwise benign gas into to the atmosphere every year. This steady build-up of CO2 is altering the proportions of atmospheric gases, the result of which is now common knowledge. The prognosis is not good. If an effective response strategy is not implemented as soon as possible, as early as 2065 the world’s coastal cities may be under water and many settled parts of the world too hot to support human habitation.

Public awareness of the situation is increasing, but timely and effective action lags as the world struggles to bring two root problems into focus.

Firstly, humans populations are growing, and in the process relentlessly degrading the biosphere. We are burning forests and clearing land for agricultural and industrial development, systematically releasing very large amounts of natural carbon stored in vegetation and in soils. Cleared agricultural lands worldwide are fertilized with nitrogen, which releases nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas about 300 times more potent than CO2. Emissions from this kind of environmental exploitation are thought to account for up to one third of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Among the remedies: checking population growth, planting millions of trees, and restricting the use of artificial fertilizers.

The second problem involves a technical miscalculation. Since the industrial revolution, various types of energy conversion devices have transformed the chemical energy of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) into mechanical and heat energy. The energy produced has been used to generate electricity, propel all manner of vehicles, make steel and concrete, prepare countless meals, and mow a lot of lawns. Fortunes were made bringing these energy conversion devices to market and constructing the complex domestic and industrial systems for which they provide power. More fortunes were made supplying the fossil fuel for those devices. While all of these economic benefits were occurring, only a few scientists – John Tyndall, Svante Arrhenius, Guy Callender among them – had the presence of mind to calculate how the exhaust from fossil fuel combustion would impact the thermodynamics of the atmosphere.

Although the miscalculation multiplied by orders of magnitude and eventually became part of the wallpaper of modern life, it is important to recall the initial, fundamental, and rather simple error: that is, energy conversion devices that burn fossil fuels increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Period. That being the root problem, the solution is correspondingly simple: replace all energy conversion devices that add fossil-source carbon dioxide to the atmosphere with energy conversion devices that do not. Essentially this is a pollution response and cleanup operation, the core task, the hinge on which all manner of system changes take place – including removing carbon dioxide pollution from the atmosphere.

From an engineering perspective, the world already has the necessary hardware at hand. However, deployment of said hardware is not as speedy as some might hope. Deployment remains subject to the constraints of conventional economics. Its not like World War II, when government war policy saw automobile assembly lines become tank assembly lines in a matter of weeks. But that could change.

From a policy perspective, the miscalculation will be remedied when the global community classifies climate change as a symptom of carbon dioxide pollution, and focuses on rapid phase out of the mechanical devices – in the electricity, transportation, heavy industrial, and building sectors – which are the source of that pollution. The ensuing pollution response and cleanup operation will of course transform the energy space.

The White House and the real change agents

the White House in decline

Anyone with an inkling of social literacy can see Donald Trump has been handed a job that is well beyond his reach. As a result, the once reputable White House is sinking into a political swamp that Mr. Trump expected he would drain. Is this because the White House was not built on solid ground in the first place? Or did the political earthquake of the last US election turn the ground at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave into quicksand?

Whatever the case, Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Accord has been a major, albeit predictable, disappointment. But the international community will carry on regardless. The world will continue to transition away from fossil fuel-based energy systems, building on recent momentum.

For electricity generation, renewable energy is now a cheaper source of primary energy than coal in many parts of the world. Automobiles powered by electric motors are proving themselves to be mechanically superior to those powered by internal combustion engines, and may achieve price parity sooner than expected.

The Paris Accord may only become marginally less effective without the participation of the US federal government. And the US exit may lead to scrutiny regarding what the Paris Accord can and cannot do, on its own, to protect the international community from the time bomb created a century and a half ago when we seized on the economic possibilities of coal, oil and natural gas.

The change agents driving the growing international movement to end anthropogenic carbon emissions are not harried politicians and hair-brained presidents. The real change agents are the world’s car makers, electric grid operators, builders, heavy industries, and landowners. And what they must do collectively – as responsible participants in the world economy – is two-fold: Firstly, transform the energy sector, and secondly, restore the biosphere.

It’s not that complicated. Car makers, electric grid operators, builders, and heavy industries will be replacing energy conversion devices that burn fossil fuels. Electric motors will replace internal combustion engines in the world’s billion-plus motor vehicles. Renewables (and perhaps 4th generation nuclear) will replace coal fired boilers in electricity generation plants. Landowners, will end or even reverse a deeply entrenched tradition of biosphere abuse by farmers, foresters, and developers. It’s also pretty obvious that hundreds of billions of tons of carbon pollution will have to be removed from the atmosphere. All of this is doable with available methods and technologies.

The international community is beginning to make a concerted effort to deal with climate change – even if a former reality TV star and his willfully ignorant followers can neither comprehend the problem nor imagine the solutions.

Climate change – call the fire brigade

dystopian fire brigade

a sort of reasonable rant

If your house catches fire, you call the fire department. The guys (mostly) at the fire station say they’ll be right on over. Sirens and clatter and ladders and hoses. Usually, they save the day.

Now, with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases polluting the earth’s atmosphere at a dangerous, accelerating pace, causing unprecedented extreme weather, record floods, and wildfires worldwide, who do you call? Politicians? Not the right skill set, apparently. Businessmen? Getting warm.

So your house is on fire. You call the fire department. There’s a crew there. Each has a different opinion about what’s happening. One guy says, “Cynthia’s house is on fire! Let’s go!  Another guy says, “What fire? There’s no fire. I don’t see no fire.” Over by the fire truck, another guy says, “Let’s go turn the fire down. Then we set targets and deadlines, and monitor the situation.”

OK, so who do you call? Really.

You talk to practical and pragmatic leaders of the world community, roughly categorized in two groups:

1) The biosphere brigade

This includes religious leaders who persuade their congregations to see the benefits of an emergency one-child policy. (Seriously. You do that. But don’t do it alone.) You talk to farmers, landowners, mining companies, forest industries.

This first group is responsible for seeing to it that humans stop overrunning the planet and having their way with it. Steadfastly polite, you talk to religious leaders and say your bit. You get farmers to be as friendly as possible to natural systems, and you get forestry companies to plant trees and conserve vegetation. The main point here is biosphere restoration. This takes care of about 25 – 35 % of greenhouse gas emissions.

2) The engineering brigade

You find these professionals managing the world’s energy sector. They are running electric grids, manufacturing automobiles and aeroplanes, making steel and cement, designing buildings, and building homes.

With their help, you mobilize all designers, trades people and laborers in those industries; then you do what it takes to swap out the energy conversion devises (ECDs) in those industries that run on fossil fuels. You replace them with ECDs that run on electricity, or biofuel. You ask them to drop what they’re doing and … PUT OUT THE FIRE.

It’s a real fire! And with fire, you deal with combustion. You stop combustion. Obviously, you don’t burn down trees, for example. So that’s what you do in the energy sector. And what that means is the machines we use to power the equipment of modern civilization stop burning fossil fuel.

But you can’t just switch them off. You have to replace them. That is the mission.

It is possible we humans will not get it together to put out the fire. In that case, we will have to live, at best, in a seriously compromised earthly environment. Parts of the globe will be uninhabitable. Major cities will be have to build dykes against the sea. Some won’t be able to. But the earth will be OK. It has been in a similar condition before. Things will be very different for us, for sure, but the earth will be OK.

Are we headed to Dystopia? Hope not. Ideas and plans welcome.

image: Mad Max -Fury Road


Sources of greenhouse gas pollution

greenhouse gas sources

The international community has identified seven anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) that are harmful to the Earth’s atmosphere and, as a consequence, harmful to the planet’s finely tuned climate system. The gases are:

  • carbon dioxide (CO2)
  • methane (CH4)
  • nitrous oxide (N2O)
  • hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
  • perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
  • sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and
  • nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)

Over 30 billion tonnes of these pollutants are discharged around the globe annually. The human activities responsible for these emissions include: the burning of fossil fuels to produce energy; the alteration and destruction of the Earth’s natural habitat for economic development; and the production and use of fluorinated gases for various industrial applications.

Burning fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide, released in the exhaust of internal combustion engines, gas turbines and industrial boilers, and when land is cleared, accounts for the largest portion of greenhouse gas pollution worldwide. Non-toxic, odorless and colourless, CO2 has thermodynamic properties which are key to maintaining atmospheric temperatures.

Fossil fuel combustion produces carbon dioxide (CO2) in exhaust gases. The heat of combustion oxidizes some nitrogen in the air to form nitrous oxide (N2O). The methods and processes involved in mining, refining, and transporting fossil fuels discharge methane (CH4). Additional CO2 is produced where fuel combustion is required for heat and mechanical energy in the fossil fuel supply chain.

Devices that burn fossil fuels are ubiquitous fixtures of the world economy. Over a billion internal combustion engines power automobiles, motor cycles, locomotives, airplanes, ships, electric generators, mowers, and hand-held tools. Tens of thousands of industrial boilers and gas turbines generate electricity for the grid and for use in factories.

An uncounted number of stoves, furnaces, kilns, refinery distillers and smelters provide heat for homes and industrial processes such as steel making, refining crude oil, and cement production. Cement production produces an extra measure of GHG because, in addition to burning fossil fuels to heat kilns, it emits CO2 when transforming limestone, a fossil mineral, into calcium oxide (clinker).

Fossil fuel production and combustion accounts for about 75 percent of global greenhouse gas pollution.

Altering and destroying natural habitat

Burning trees and other plants, or leaving them to rot, releases CO2 that had been removed from the atmosphere during the life of those plants. Normally, this is a net-zero emissions equation, but when more plants are destroyed than grow, there is a net increase in atmospheric CO2.

industrial cattleMost deforestation now occurs in tropical regions where industrial-scale agriculture, such as cattle farming and palm oil production, is eliminating jungle habitat.

Cultivation of soil through tillage releases CO2 stored by organic matter in the soil, and fertilizer enhances emissions of N2O from normal bacterial activity.

Industrial-scale farming of cattle, goats, sheep, poultry, pigs, and other animals produces CH4, both from manure and from the digestive tracts of domesticated ruminants.

Rice paddies produce CH4 and CO2 in a way similar to reservoirs (see below).

Natural lakes and river systems produce CH4 and CO2. Man-made reservoirs, including those created by hydro electric dams, behave in a similar manner, but CH4 emissions can spike or increase overall when trees and other vegetation are left to rot in flooded areas.

Use of fluorinated gases

Industrial chemicals containing fluorine (HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3) are used as refrigerants, as fire extinguishing materials, as solvents, and in the manufacture of plastic foams. Aluminum production is the largest source of PFC emissions. Pollution from these chemicals is small in terms of volume, but as greenhouse gases, they are up to 23 thousand times more powerful than carbon dioxide and persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years.

Pollution response and clean up

wind turbinesThe simplest way to understand and deal with GHG pollution is to treat it in the same manner as the discharge of any harmful substance: that is, stop it at source and remove it from the environment. In practice, stopping GHG pollution means replacing energy technologies that burn fossil fuels, and restoring natural habitat. Removal from the environment means developing technologies to remove CO2 directly from the atmosphere.

The global scale of GHG pollution, and its already devastating impacts, calls for focused, cooperative and rapid action from government, industry and private individuals worldwide.

Corroboration and elaboration: